Steelman · slot A
The energy-market shock case
An oil markets analyst would argue —Brent jumping more than five percent in a single session past $115 is the market doing its job — repricing a barrel of crude to reflect that the supply cushion we assumed existed has just been punctured. Fujairah was the relief valve: with Hormuz transit already compromised, the pipeline from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah was the route that let traders still believe Gulf crude could reach buyers. A drone strike on that terminal collapses that assumption. We are no longer pricing a contained Israel-Iran exchange; we are pricing the destruction of redundancy itself, and at $115 the curve is telling you it expects more, not less.