Steelman · slot A
The anticipation shock is the shock
A labor economist tracking white-collar hiring would argue —Look at what CEOs are actually telling reporters: they assume AI will replace large chunks of junior white-collar work, so they've stopped backfilling those roles. That's the mechanism doing the damage right now — not deployed AI systems, but the permission structure AI executives have created for indefinite hiring pauses. Recent grads ages 22-27 face 5.6% unemployment against 4.2% overall, near the widest gap on record, and only 20% of young workers think it's a good time to find a quality job, down from 62% in 2021. Those numbers aren't waiting on GPT-7 to be catastrophic. The labor market is pricing in a technological transition that hasn't happened yet, and a cohort of young workers is paying the bill upfront.