Steelman · slot C
The case for treating this as a global shock
A development economist would argue —Capitals outside the region keep filing this under 'Middle East crisis,' but the UN is already warning that Hormuz disruption means fertiliser shortages that could push millions into hunger — and that's before we count the food-price second-order effects in import-dependent countries from Egypt to Bangladesh. Fuel prices are climbing, which is why Republicans are quietly rewriting their midterm strategy: a standoff in the Gulf is now an inflation event in suburban America. Iran's domestic markets are strained but holding; the more fragile economies are the ones with no exposure to the conflict and no buffer against its prices. Any serious response has to start from the recognition that Hormuz is not a regional chokepoint — it's a global one, and the humanitarian and political bills are already being mailed out.