Steelman · slot B
The quiet bailout case
A sovereign-debt analyst would argue —Strip away the diplomatic packaging and look at what's actually happening. Fujairah exports are down by more than half. Iranian missiles and drones are hitting Emirati territory. And in the middle of that, a country with $2 trillion in sovereign wealth and $300 billion in FX reserves is asking the US Treasury for emergency dollar access. Brad Setser is being polite when he calls it "slightly strange" — swap lines exist for countries facing dollar liquidity stress, full stop. The UAE's reserves are real but they're parked in long-duration assets you don't want to fire-sell into a war. Whatever Abu Dhabi calls this publicly, the request itself tells you the war is doing damage the balance sheet was supposed to absorb.