The October 2025 ceasefire is fraying in plain sight. More than 800 Palestinians have been killed since it took effect, Israel now holds roughly 60 percent of Gaza, and Israeli commanders have completed plans for a renewed offensive pending political approval. The US is downsizing its Israel-based monitoring center as functions shift to the new International Stabilisation Force. Tony Blair told the Security Council the war has stopped but violations continue. In parallel, the Lebanon ceasefire is breaking down through daily exchanges, settler violence in the West Bank is drawing warnings from former Israeli security chiefs, and Netanyahu faces an October election while Trump presses Herzog for a pardon. The open question is whether the ceasefire architecture survives May.