Today's Brief
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SourcesReason
Trade · Manufacturing
Kearney Study Finds Trump Tariffs Shifted Imports From China But Not Reshored Manufacturing
The report undercuts a central justification for Trump's tariff regime — that higher import taxes would revive US factory employment — while documenting a measurable redirection of supply chains across Asia.
1.5%
rise in US manufacturing capacity despite tripled capital investment since 2020
The facts · bedrock
A new Kearney report concludes that President Donald Trump's tariffs have not produced significant near-term reshoring of manufacturing to the United States or reduced overall US import dependence. US imports from China fell by roughly $135 billion in 2025 compared with 2024, about a 10 percent decline, while imports from 13 other Asian countries rose by a cumulative $193 billion. Imports from Canada declined by about $25 billion, and imports from Europe rose by roughly $62 billion, with much of that increase concentrated early in the year. Capital investment in US manufacturing has tripled since 2020 but has yielded only a 1.5 percent increase in US manufacturing capacity.
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Reason
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How it's being framed
Same facts, different stories. We name the frame instead of pretending neutrality.
Tariffs-aren't-working frame
"The independent data is in: tariffs haven't reshored jobs or cut import dependence — they've just rerouted supply chains from China to Vietnam and India while raising costs and creating the uncertainty that actually deters factory-building at home."
Reshoring-takes-time frame
"Capital investment in U.S. manufacturing has tripled since 2020 and major firms are committing to American factories; turning that money into operating plants takes years, so judging Liberation Day tariffs by one year of jobs data misses the actual trajectory."
China-decoupling frame
"Even if domestic factory jobs haven't surged, U.S. imports from China fell roughly 10 percent in a single year — a meaningful strategic decoupling from a geopolitical rival, which was always part of what the tariffs were meant to do."