Steelman · slot A
The spillover-risk case
A Gulf security analyst would argue —When Iran launches drones and missiles into this region, the airspace over the Gulf is not a clean military corridor — it sits directly on top of the approach paths into Dubai and Sharjah. The fact that aircraft are now being held and rerouted is not an unfortunate side effect; it is the predictable consequence of conducting kinetic strikes through one of the most heavily trafficked civilian skies on earth. Every diversion today is a near-miss we got lucky on, and it underscores that Tehran's calculus treats the safety of third-country passengers and Gulf states' sovereignty as acceptable collateral. The region cannot keep absorbing that risk quietly.